قارن الطرق

	تقييم الأثر السببي البايزي	الاختلافات في الاختلافات البايزية
المجال	الاستدلال السببي	الاستدلال السببي
العائلة	Regression model	Regression model
سنة النشأة	2015 (canonical implementation); Rubin potential outcomes: 1974-2005	2015-2023
صاحب الطريقة	Brodersen, Gallusser, Koehler, Remy & Scott; Rubin potential outcomes framework	Li & Marchand (formal Bayesian DiD framework); Brodersen et al. (Bayesian causal inference in time series)
النوع	Bayesian causal inference / counterfactual estimation	Bayesian causal inference / panel regression
المصدر التأسيسي	Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274.	Li, F., & Marchand, J. (2023). Bayesian inference for difference-in-differences. Econometrics Journal, 26(3), 509-529.
الأسماء البديلة	Bayesian CIE, Bayesian causal impact, Bayesian structural time-series causal inference, BSTS counterfactual evaluation	Bayesian DiD, Bayes DiD, Bayesian diff-in-diff, Bayesian panel causal estimator
ذات صلة	5	5
الملخص	Bayesian Counterfactual Impact Evaluation estimates the causal effect of an intervention by constructing a Bayesian posterior distribution over the counterfactual outcome — what would have happened without treatment. The method, popularized by Brodersen et al. (2015) through the CausalImpact framework, uses Bayesian structural time-series models fitted on the pre-intervention period to predict the counterfactual trajectory, then compares observed post-intervention outcomes to that prediction.	Bayesian Difference-in-Differences applies Bayesian statistical inference to the classic DiD design, replacing frequentist point estimates with full posterior distributions over the treatment effect. This yields not only an estimate of the causal effect but also a coherent probability statement about its magnitude and uncertainty, making it especially useful when sample sizes are modest or informative prior knowledge is available.