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Migration Flow Estimation from Stocks/Ushahidi
Rekodi ya ushahidi wa mbinu

Migration Flow Estimation from Stocks

Migration flow estimation from stocks reconstructs the unobserved movement of people between countries from something that is observed: how many foreign-born residents each country holds, broken down by country of birth, at two points in time. Most countries report migrant stocks — the number of people living abroad by where they were born — far more reliably than they report flows, the year-by-year counts of who moved where. Guy Abel's 2013 method, refined in the Abel and Cohen 2019 release covering 200 countries, treats the change in these bilateral stock tables between two censuses as the net result of migration plus births and deaths, and solves for the smallest set of origin-to-destination flows that could have produced the observed change. The approach rests on demographic accounting: a stock at the end of a period equals the stock at the start, plus births into the group, minus deaths, plus arrivals, minus departures. By fixing the demographic margins and minimizing flows, it turns a fragmentary stock record into a complete, comparable flow table. This has become the standard way to build globally consistent five-year migration flow estimates where direct flow data simply do not exist.

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Migration Flow Estimation from Migrant Stock Data (Abel-Cohen Method)
Rekodi ya mbinu ya kiajenda · process-pipeline / migration-studies
  • Abel, G. J. (2013). Estimating Global Migration Flow Tables Using Place of Birth Data. Demographic Research, 28, 505-546. · DOI 10.4054/DemRes.2013.28.18
  • Abel, G. J., & Cohen, J. E. (2019). Bilateral international migration flow estimates for 200 countries. Scientific Data, 6, 82. · DOI 10.1038/s41597-019-0089-3
  • Bell, M., Blake, M., Boyle, P., Duke-Williams, O., Rees, P., Stillwell, J., & Hugo, G. (2002). Cross-national comparison of internal migration: issues and measures. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 165(3), 435-464. · DOI 10.1111/1467-985X.t01-1-00247
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Taxonomic bucketBilateral Migration Flow Imputationmachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.Same method familyMigration Effectiveness Indexmachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.Used in the same domainPlace-to-Place Migration Modelmachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.

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Sources recorded, not reviewed

Bibliographic sources are present. Claim-level evidence review has not been performed.

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