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Gompertz Substitution Forecasting

Gompertz substitution forecasting projects the adoption, diffusion, or substitution of a technology by fitting the asymmetric Gompertz growth curve to historical data and extrapolating it toward a saturation ceiling. Like the symmetric logistic used in the Fisher-Pry substitution model, the Gompertz curve captures the characteristic S-shape of technological change — slow initial uptake, rapid mid-life growth, and tapering as the market saturates — but unlike the logistic it is asymmetric, reaching its fastest growth early, at roughly 37 percent of the ceiling rather than at the midpoint. This makes it a natural choice when a new technology accelerates quickly and then approaches its limit gradually. Within the futures and foresight toolkit catalogued by Glenn and Gordon, growth-curve forecasting of this kind is a core quantitative method for anticipating when a technology will mature and when a successor is likely to displace it.

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Gompertz Substitution Forecasting (Asymmetric Growth-Curve Technology Diffusion)

Rekodi ya mbinu ya kiajenda · process-pipeline / futures-foresight-studies

Fisher, J. C., & Pry, R. H. (1971). A simple substitution model of technological change. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 3, 75-88. · DOI 10.1016/S0040-1625(71)80005-7
Glenn, J. C., & Gordon, T. J. (Eds.). (2009). Futures Research Methodology, Version 3.0. The Millennium Project. · ISBN 9780981894119

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Same method familyDelphi Technology Forecastingmachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.Same method familyFisher-Pry Substitution Modelmachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.Same method familyTrend Impact Analysismachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.