Metodebevisregister

Fisher-Pry Substitution Model

The Fisher-Pry Substitution Model, introduced by John Fisher and Robert Pry of General Electric in 1971, is a foundational technique for forecasting technological substitution — the process by which a new technology displaces an older one. Its empirical premise, supported by dozens of historical cases from synthetic to natural materials and from one manufacturing process to another, is that the fractional market share captured by the new technology follows a logistic (S-shaped) growth curve. The model's elegance lies in a transformation: when the takeover ratio f/(1-f), the ratio of the new technology's share to the old's, is plotted on a logarithmic scale against time, the substitution traces a straight line. This linearization makes it easy to fit, interpret, and extrapolate substitutions from sparse early data, which is why the Fisher-Pry curve remains a workhorse of technological forecasting.

Sources recorded, not reviewed

Kilderegister

Siteringer kopiert ordrett fra metodens kilderegister. Ingen påstandsnivåverifisering er underforstått fra dem.

Fisher-Pry Substitution Model (Logistic Technological Substitution Forecasting)

Taksonomisk metoderegister · process-pipeline / futures-foresight-studies

Fisher, J. C., & Pry, R. H. (1971). A simple substitution model of technological change. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 3, 75-88. · DOI 10.1016/S0040-1625(71)80005-7

Åpne full metode

Kuraterte påstander

Påstander lagret i bevishovedboken, hver med sin egen vurdering.

Ingen kuraterte påstander ennå

Denne visningen finner ikke opp en påstandsvurdering når hovedboken ikke har noen.

Relaterte metoder

Generert fra metodegrafen og vist som maskinforslåtte relasjoner – ingen bevispåstand er underforstått.

Same method familyEmerging Issues Analysismachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.Same method familyTrend Impact Analysismachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.