Regression Discontinuity in Sentencing
Regression discontinuity (RD) in sentencing exploits the sharp thresholds built into justice policy — sentencing-guideline cutoffs, the age of majority, risk-score thresholds that trigger detention or diversion — to estimate causal effects without a randomized trial. Units just above the cutoff receive a different treatment from units just below it, yet they are otherwise nearly identical, so comparing their outcomes isolates the effect of crossing the line. Berk and Rauma's 1983 evaluation of a crime-control program showed how criminologists can 'capitalize on nonrandom assignment' created by such rules.
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- Berk, R. A., & Rauma, D. (1983). Capitalizing on nonrandom assignment to treatments: A regression-discontinuity evaluation of a crime-control program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 78(381), 21–27. · DOI 10.1080/01621459.1983.10477917
- Lee, D. S., & Lemieux, T. (2010). Regression discontinuity designs in economics. Journal of Economic Literature, 48(2), 281–355. · DOI 10.1257/jel.48.2.281
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