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demography

Cohort-Component Projection

Cohort-Component Projection is the standard demographic method for forecasting future population size and age-sex structure by explicitly tracking births, deaths, and migration for each age-sex cohort across discrete time steps. Systematically formalized in the textbook literature by Preston, Heuveline, and Guillot (20

1 sumber2001
demography

Lee-Carter Model

The Lee-Carter model is a stochastic framework for modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality rates, introduced by Ronald Lee and Lawrence Carter in their landmark 1992 paper. It decomposes the logarithm of age-specific death rates into an age pattern of mortality, a time-varying index of mortality level, and an a

1 sumber1992
demography

Life Table

A life table is a systematic, age-structured summary of the mortality experience of a population. It traces a hypothetical cohort of births — conventionally 100,000 — through successive age intervals, recording how many survive, how many die, and how many person-years are lived at each interval. The method was formaliz

1 sumber1984
demography

Migration Models

Migration models are quantitative frameworks for explaining and forecasting population movement between geographic units. Lee's (1966) push-pull theory classifies factors at origin and destination into positive and negative forces, modulated by intervening obstacles. Widely used by demographers, regional planners, and

1 sumber1966
demography

Stable Population Theory

Stable Population Theory is a mathematical framework in demography that describes the age structure and growth dynamics of a closed population subject to constant age-specific fertility and mortality schedules over a long period. Foundational work by Alfred J. Lotka established the core integral equation in the early t

1 sumber1972