Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) estimates the ground motion a site would experience from a specific, postulated earthquake scenario rather than from the full probabilistic aggregation of all possible earthquakes. The analyst identifies the seismic sources capable of affecting the site, assigns each a maximum magnitude and a closest distance, and then asks what shaking the most demanding of these scenarios would produce. Leon Reiter's 1990 text codified the four-step DSHA procedure that remains the textbook reference, situating it alongside the probabilistic framework that Cornell introduced in 1968. The output is typically a single design ground motion or response spectrum, often computed at the median or median-plus-one-standard-deviation level. DSHA answers the question 'what is the worst shaking a credible earthquake could deliver here?' rather than 'how often is a given shaking level exceeded?'. It remains central to critical-facility design, scenario emergency planning, and as a deterministic cap on probabilistic results.
Catatan sumber
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- Reiter, L. (1990). Earthquake Hazard Analysis: Issues and Insights. New York: Columbia University Press. · ISBN 9780231065344
- Cornell, C. A. (1968). Engineering Seismic Risk Analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 58(5), 1583-1606. · DOI 10.1785/BSSA0580051583
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