Cliometric Counterfactual Analysis
Cliometric counterfactual analysis is the signature technique of the 'new economic history' pioneered by Robert Fogel: it tests claims about the historical importance of an innovation, institution, or event by constructing an explicit, quantified hypothetical economy in which that factor is absent and measuring how much worse off the counterfactual world would have been. Fogel's 1964 study of American railroads asked not whether railroads mattered but how much, building a hypothetical 1890 economy served by canals and wagons and computing the 'social saving' railroads provided. The shockingly small figure overturned the consensus that railroads were indispensable to American growth, and Fogel and Engerman extended the same explicit, theory-driven, measurement-heavy reasoning to slavery in Time on the Cross. The method fuses neoclassical economic theory, formal counterfactuals, and aggressive quantification of the archival record.
Catatan sumber
Kutipan disalin apa adanya dari catatan sumber metode. Tidak ada verifikasi tingkat klaim yang disimpulkan darinya.
- Fogel, R. W. (1964). Railroads and American Economic Growth: Essays in Econometric History. Johns Hopkins Press. · ISBN 9780801805547
- Fogel, R. W., & Engerman, S. L. (1974). Time on the Cross: The Economics of American Negro Slavery. Little, Brown. · ISBN 9780393312188
Klaim yang dikurasi
Klaim tersimpan dalam buku besar bukti, masing-masing dengan penilaiannya sendiri.
Tampilan ini tidak menciptakan penilaian klaim ketika buku besar tidak memilikinya.
Metode terkait
Dihasilkan dari grafik metode dan ditampilkan sebagai relasi yang disarankan mesin — tidak ada klaim bukti yang disimpulkan.