Conflict Diffusion Analysis

Conflict diffusion analysis studies how conflict spreads from one place to another — across borders, between neighboring regions, over time. It addresses a sharp inferential challenge posed by Buhaug and Gleditsch (2008): conflicts cluster in space, but clustering can reflect either genuine contagion (a war next door actually raises your risk) or merely the fact that neighbors share war-prone conditions. Using spatial-temporal lags of neighboring conflict alongside covariates, and theorizing concrete transmission mechanisms such as refugee flows and transnational ethnic ties, the method tries to separate true diffusion from spurious co-location.