Dossier de preuve de méthode

Conflict Forecasting

Conflict forecasting is the enterprise of producing calibrated, regularly updated probabilistic predictions of where and when armed conflict will occur, to support early warning and prevention. Exemplified by operational systems such as ViEWS (Hegre et al. 2019), it combines historical conflict data and predictors at fine spatial and temporal resolution, fits and ensembles multiple models, and forecasts violence months ahead — then rigorously evaluates those forecasts against what actually happens. It differs from explanatory conflict analysis by being transparent, prospective, and judged on out-of-sample accuracy rather than on coefficients.

Sources recorded, not reviewed

Dossier source

Citations copiées telles quelles du dossier source de la méthode. Aucune vérification au niveau de la revendication n'en est déduite.

Conflict Forecasting and Political Violence Early Warning

Dossier de méthode taxonomique · ml-model / international-relations

Hegre, H., Allansson, M., Basedau, M., Colaresi, M., Croicu, M., Fjelde, H., et al. (2019). ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system. Journal of Peace Research, 56(2), 155–174. · DOI 10.1177/0022343319823860

Ouvrir la méthode complète

Revendications organisées

Revendications enregistrées dans le registre de preuves, chacune avec sa propre évaluation.

Pas encore de revendications organisées

Cette vue n'invente pas d'évaluation de revendication lorsque le registre n'en contient aucune.

Méthodes apparentées

Généré à partir du graphe de méthodes et présenté comme des relations suggérées par la machine — aucune revendication de preuve n'est déduite.

Same method familyMachine Learning Conflict Predictionmachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.Used in the same domainSpatial Conflict Analysismachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.Used in the same domainUCDP Conflict Data Analysismachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.