Punctuated Equilibrium Analysis

Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET), developed by Frank Baumgartner and Bryan Jones in their 1993 book Agendas and Instability in American Politics, explains how policymaking is characterised by long periods of stability and incremental change interrupted by brief, dramatic bursts of major change. Borrowing the metaphor from evolutionary biology, it argues that the way an issue is understood (its 'policy image') and the institutional 'venue' in which it is handled normally reinforce a stable equilibrium — until attention shifts, the image is reframed, and rapid, large-scale change punctuates the calm.