Registro de evidencia del método

Intention-to-Migrate Prediction

Intention-to-migrate prediction models stated plans to migrate as a forecast of actual migration behavior, taking seriously that what people say they will do is informative but imperfect. Migration surveys routinely ask whether respondents intend or plan to move, and these stated intentions are among the strongest available predictors of who later migrates; yet the link is far from one-to-one, because intentions are frustrated by constraints and some moves happen without prior plans. Jorgen Carling's 2002 work on involuntary immobility highlighted exactly this slippage between wanting or planning to migrate and being able to, and Hein de Haas's 2021 aspirations-capabilities framework formalized why intentions translate into behavior only when capability is present. The method estimates the probability of intending to migrate from individual and contextual covariates, relates intention to subsequent observed moves, and explicitly measures the intention-behavior gap. It then calibrates and validates its predictions against later migration, and refines them by conditioning on capability. The aim is honest, validated prediction rather than treating stated intention as destiny.

Sources recorded, not reviewed

Registro de origen

Citas copiadas textualmente del registro de origen del método. No se infiere ninguna verificación a nivel de afirmación de ellas.

Intention-to-Migrate Prediction and Validation

Registro del método taxonómico · regression-model / migration-studies

Abrir método completo

Afirmaciones curadas

Afirmaciones persistidas en el libro mayor de evidencia, cada una con su propia evaluación.

Aún no hay afirmaciones curadas

Esta vista no inventa una evaluación de afirmación si el libro mayor no tiene ninguna.

Métodos relacionados

Generado a partir del grafo de métodos y mostrado como relaciones sugeridas por la máquina; no se infiere ninguna afirmación de evidencia.

Used in the same domainDiscrete-Time Hazard of Migrationmachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.Used in the same domainMigration Aspirations-Capabilities Surveymachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.Used in the same domainPush-Pull Factor Analysismachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.