Delphi Method for Strategy Foresight
The Delphi method is a structured process for combining the judgments of a panel of experts on questions where hard data are scarce - long-range forecasts, emerging technologies, and strategic uncertainties - through several rounds of anonymous response and controlled feedback. Linstone and Turoff's 1975 collection The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications established the canonical design and its variants, including the policy Delphi used to explore strategic options rather than to pin down a single estimate. Rowe and Wright's 1999 International Journal of Forecasting review distilled the evidence on what makes Delphi work, identifying anonymity, iteration, controlled statistical feedback, and aggregation of the final round as the procedure's defining features. In strategy and corporate foresight, Delphi is used to forecast technology timelines, prioritize uncertainties, and build expert consensus to inform long-horizon decisions.
Registro de origen
Citas copiadas textualmente del registro de origen del método. No se infiere ninguna verificación a nivel de afirmación de ellas.
- Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (Eds.). (1975). The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Addison-Wesley. · ISBN 9780201042948
- Rowe, G., & Wright, G. (1999). The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis. International Journal of Forecasting, 15(4), 353-375. · DOI 10.1016/S0169-2070(99)00018-7
Afirmaciones curadas
Afirmaciones persistidas en el libro mayor de evidencia, cada una con su propia evaluación.
Esta vista no inventa una evaluación de afirmación si el libro mayor no tiene ninguna.
Métodos relacionados
Generado a partir del grafo de métodos y mostrado como relaciones sugeridas por la máquina; no se infiere ninguna afirmación de evidencia.