Σύγκριση μεθόδων

	Onward Migration Analysis	Circular Migration Measurement
Πεδίο	Migration Studies	Migration Studies
Οικογένεια	Survival analysis	Survival analysis
Έτος προέλευσης	1980	2011
Δημιουργός	Migration theory tradition (Conway; Massey et al.)	Amelie F. Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann
Τύπος	Competing-risks hazard analysis of secondary moves	Count-data and repeat-transition measurement of migratory circularity
Θεμελιώδης πηγή	Conway, D. (1980). Step-Wise Migration: Toward a Clarification of the Mechanism. International Migration Review, 14(1), 3-14.	Constant, A. F., & Zimmermann, K. F. (2011). Circular and Repeat Migration: Counts of Exits and Years Away from the Host Country. Population Research and Policy Review, 30(4), 495-515.
Εναλλακτικές ονομασίες	Secondary Migration Analysis, Onward Movement Analysis, Re-migration Analysis, Transit-to-Third-Country Migration	Repeat Migration Counts, Circularity Index of Migration, Exits-and-Years-Away Measurement, Markov Repeat-Migration Model
Συναφείς	3	3
Σύνοψη	Onward migration analysis studies what happens after a migrant's first move: rather than settling permanently or returning home, many migrants move again to a third country or region, a secondary or 'onward' move that conventional origin-to-destination analysis misses entirely. The analytical core is event-history modeling with competing risks. From the moment a migrant arrives at a first destination, several mutually exclusive futures compete — moving onward, returning to the origin, or remaining — and the method models the hazard of each as a function of time since arrival and of the migrant's characteristics and conditions. This framing draws on the step-wise migration tradition that David Conway clarified in 1980, in which migration unfolds as a sequence of moves rather than a single transition, and on the synthesis of migration theories by Massey and colleagues in 1993, which supplies the human-capital, network, and structural mechanisms that drive secondary movement. A central question is selectivity: onward movers are typically not a random subset of arrivals but are differentially selected on skills, legal status, and ties, so comparing the determinants of onward moves against those of return and staying reveals who keeps moving and why.	Circular migration measurement provides a quantitative grammar for distinguishing migrants who move back and forth across a border from those who settle permanently or return for good. Constant and Zimmermann's 2011 study proposed measuring circularity through two simple but powerful quantities: the number of exits a migrant makes from the host country and the cumulative years they spend away. With these counts in hand, the analysis models them statistically — using Poisson or negative-binomial regression for the count of exits and related models for years away — and represents the back-and-forth itself as transitions between being in the host country and being away, in the spirit of a Markov repeat-migration process. The framework turns the fuzzy notion of 'circular' or 'repeat' migration into measurable outcomes that can be explained by individual and contextual covariates and used to classify migrants into permanent stayers, circular movers, and permanent returners. Its contribution is to make circularity countable rather than merely descriptive.