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| Μοντέλα Μετανάστευσης (Ωθήσεων-Έλξεων / Πολυπεριφερειακά)× | Προβολή Πληθυσμού με τη Μέθοδο Στοιχείων (Cohort-Component Projection)× | Μοντέλο Ακτινοβολίας Κινητικότητας και Μετανάστευσης× | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Πεδίο≠ | Δημογραφία | Δημογραφία | Χωρική Ανάλυση |
| Οικογένεια≠ | Regression model | Process / pipeline | Regression model |
| Έτος προέλευσης≠ | 1966 | 2001 | 2012 |
| Δημιουργός≠ | Everett Lee | Preston, Heuveline & Guillot | Filippo Simini et al. |
| Τύπος≠ | Theoretical-quantitative migration framework | Demographic projection pipeline | Parameter-free spatial interaction model |
| Θεμελιώδης πηγή≠ | Lee, E. S. (1966). A theory of migration. Demography, 3(1), 47–57. DOI ↗ | Preston, S. H., Heuveline, P., & Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell. ISBN: 978-1-557-86451-2 | Simini, F., González, M. C., Maritan, A., & Barabási, A.-L. (2012). A universal model for mobility and migration patterns. Nature, 484, 96–100. DOI ↗ |
| Εναλλακτικές ονομασίες | Push-Pull Migration Theory, Multiregional Migration Model, Lee Migration Framework, Göç Modelleri | Cohort-Component Method, Component Method of Population Projection, Age-Sex-Specific Population Projection, Kohort-Bileşen Projeksiyonu | Radiation Law of Human Mobility, Parameter-free Mobility Model, Simini Radiation Model, Radyasyon Modeli |
| Συναφείς | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Σύνοψη≠ | Migration models are quantitative frameworks for explaining and forecasting population movement between geographic units. Lee's (1966) push-pull theory classifies factors at origin and destination into positive and negative forces, modulated by intervening obstacles. Widely used by demographers, regional planners, and policy researchers to project labor mobility, refugee flows, and urbanization trends across national and subnational geographies. | Cohort-Component Projection is the standard demographic method for forecasting future population size and age-sex structure by explicitly tracking births, deaths, and migration for each age-sex cohort across discrete time steps. Systematically formalized in the textbook literature by Preston, Heuveline, and Guillot (2001), the method builds on foundational actuarial and demographic work dating to the early twentieth century and remains the workhorse technique used by national statistical offices and international organizations worldwide. | The Radiation Model, introduced by Simini et al. in 2012, is a parameter-free model for predicting human mobility and migration flows between geographic locations. Drawing an analogy from radiation physics, it predicts trip volumes based solely on population sizes at origin and destination, and the intervening population within the circle connecting them. It has been widely applied to commuting flows, migration, and epidemic spreading. |
| ScholarGateΣύνολο δεδομένων ↗ |
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