Wild Card Analysis
Wild card analysis is a futures method for confronting low-probability, high-impact surprise events — the abrupt discontinuities that conventional planning, anchored on expected trends, tends to ignore precisely because they are unlikely. The discipline of the method is to take such events seriously without succumbing to alarmism: to generate a deliberate set of plausible wild cards, assess each for its likelihood and the severity of its consequences, estimate how much warning the organization would have, and gauge its vulnerability. The payoff is not a prediction but robustness — strategies, capabilities, and contingency plans that hold up across a range of shocks rather than only in the expected future. As codified in the Millennium Project's Futures Research Methodology and located within Joseph Voros's generic foresight process, wild card analysis complements trend-based foresight by deliberately stress-testing the organization against the rare events that, by their very impact, can dominate its fate.
Kilderegistrering
Citater kopieret ordret fra metodens kilderegistrering. Ingen påstandsniveauverifikation er udledt heraf.
- Glenn, J. C., & Gordon, T. J. (Eds.). (2009). Futures Research Methodology, Version 3.0. The Millennium Project. · ISBN 9780981894119
- Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. Foresight, 5(3), 10-21. · DOI 10.1108/14636680310698379
Kuraterede påstande
Påstande gemt i bevis-loggen, hver med sin egen vurdering.
Denne visning opfinder ikke en påstandsvurdering, når loggen ingen har.
Relaterede metoder
Genereret fra metodegrafen og vist som maskinelt foreslåede relationer — ingen bevispåstand er udledt.