Time series Bayesian model averaging
Time series Bayesian model averaging (TS-BMA) combines forecasts from an ensemble of time series models — such as AR, VAR, or state-space specifications — by weighting each model by its posterior probability given observed data. Rather than selecting one model and discarding uncertainty about which model is best, TS-BMA integrates over model uncertainty, producing forecasts that are more robust and better calibrated than any single model alone.
Kilderegistrering
Citater kopieret ordret fra metodens kilderegistrering. Ingen påstandsniveauverifikation er udledt heraf.
- Hoeting, J. A., Madigan, D., Raftery, A. E., & Volinsky, C. T. (1999). Bayesian model averaging: A tutorial. Statistical Science, 14(4), 382–401. · URL
- Raftery, A. E., Kárný, M., & Ettler, P. (2010). Online prediction under model uncertainty via dynamic model averaging: Application to a cold rolling mill. Technometrics, 52(1), 52–66. · DOI 10.1198/TECH.2009.08104
Kuraterede påstande
Påstande gemt i bevis-loggen, hver med sin egen vurdering.
Denne visning opfinder ikke en påstandsvurdering, når loggen ingen har.
Relaterede metoder
Genereret fra metodegrafen og vist som maskinelt foreslåede relationer — ingen bevispåstand er udledt.