Trend Impact Analysis
Trend impact analysis (TIA) is a forecasting method that marries quantitative extrapolation with expert judgment about disruptive future events. Developed by Theodore Gordon and colleagues at The Futures Group in the early 1970s and later codified in the Millennium Project's Futures Research Methodology, it starts from a 'surprise-free' baseline produced by fitting and projecting a historical time series. It then asks which unprecedented events — events with no historical analog that ordinary extrapolation cannot anticipate — could deflect that trend, and with what probability, magnitude, and timing. Through Monte Carlo simulation those probabilistic impacts perturb the baseline, yielding not a single line but a probability envelope that shows how the trend might bend if the unexpected occurs.
Registre font
Les citacions es copien textualment del registre font del mètode. No s'infereix cap verificació a nivell de reclam d'elles.
- Gordon, T. J., & Hayward, H. (1968). Initial experiments with the cross-impact matrix method of forecasting. Futures, 1(2), 100-116. · DOI 10.1016/S0016-3287(68)80003-5
- Glenn, J. C., & Gordon, T. J. (Eds.). (2009). Futures Research Methodology, Version 3.0. The Millennium Project. · ISBN 9780981894119
Reclamacions curades
Les reclamacions s'han persistit al registre de proves, cadascuna amb la seva pròpia avaluació.
Aquesta vista no inventa una avaluació de reclam quan el registre no en té cap.
Mètodes relacionats
Generat a partir del gràfic de mètodes i mostrat com a relacions suggerides per la màquina; no s'infereix cap reclamació d'evidència.